Wealthy Clients and Money Market Funds: A Banking Conundrum
Wealthy clients continue to shift towards money market funds in pursuit of higher yields, creating an ongoing challenge for banks striving to retain these affluent account holders. Money market fund assets have reached an all-time high as interest rates exceeding 5% attract investors. This surge coincides with the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining elevated interest rates for an extended period.
Record-Breaking Inflows into Money Market Funds
In the week ending August 30, approximately $14 billion flowed into money market funds, setting a record. Data from the Investment Company Institute reveals that total money market fund assets now stand at $5.58 trillion, surpassing the previous week’s $5.56 trillion. This marks the highest total since data collection began in 1992.
The Banking Challenge: Deposits Decline as Money Market Funds Surge
This trend poses significant challenges for banks, which have grappled with deposit retention over the past year. According to Federal Reserve data, deposits at all US banks have fallen by $371 billion since January. In contrast, money market funds have seen substantial growth, increasing by over $769 billion during the same period. Larger banks have continued to experience declines in deposits since the end of June, despite the slowing outflows observed during the summer.
Wealthy Clients: A Cause for Concern
Among depositors, the most concerning category for banks is the wealthy. Data from Curinos indicates that deposits from wealth management and corporate accounts have both fallen by nearly 13% year-to-date through July, although they stabilized during July itself (August data is not yet available). In contrast, mass-market consumer accounts experienced only a 1.8% decline.
Analyst Insights: The Banking Industry’s Complex Challenges
Tim Coffey, a bank analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott, points out the irony that the most worrisome bank clients are the very liquid high net worth clients. The intense competition to retain these depositors is just one of the many challenges faced by an industry grappling with high interest rates, rising funding costs, and diminishing profitability.
Wider Industry Challenges
Recent weeks have witnessed credit rating downgrades for numerous mid-sized lenders by Moody’s Investor Service and S&P Global. These downgrades mean that debt investors will now expect higher yields to hold bonds from these institutions. Larger banks also face regulatory pressures to allocate more capital and, in some cases, issue additional long-term debt to absorb potential losses. Rising credit card debt and delinquencies are emerging concerns that could result in significant losses in the near future.
Stock Market Performance: Challenges Evident
US bank stocks concluded August with their worst monthly performance of the year since March, a turbulent period for the industry. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (^BKX) fell by 8%, while the KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (^KRX) dropped by 9%.
The Backstory: Factors Behind Banking Challenges
The banking industry’s challenges began in 2022 when the Federal Reserve initiated an aggressive campaign to combat inflation by raising interest rates. This move led to a decrease in the value of bonds held by many institutions and subsequently forced them to offer higher interest rates to attract and retain deposits.
Liquidity Concerns and Recent Bank Failures
As banks faced diminishing deposits and increased funding costs, liquidity problems arose. Notably, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic failed in the spring as depositors rapidly withdrew their funds, citing concerns about these banks’ stability.
Shift Towards Higher-Interest Accounts
Many depositors shifted their funds into higher-interest-bearing accounts, further increasing banks’ funding costs. The decline in deposits squeezed liquidity for many banks, particularly as the value of their securities—constituting a significant part of their liquidity—fell.
FDIC-Insured Banks and Uninsured Deposits
Deposits at FDIC-insured banks fell by 2.5% in the first quarter of the year, marking the steepest quarterly drop since data collection began in 1984. Uninsured deposits experienced an even more pronounced decline, dropping by 8.2% during the same period.
The Importance of Competitive Rates
Scott Sieffers, a bank analyst for Piper Sandler, emphasizes the importance of competitive rates in retaining depositors. Banks that fail to offer competitive rates face a risk of deposit outflows.
Bigger Banks Affected
While larger banks initially benefited from the market turmoil in the spring by attracting deposit inflows from customers seeking safety, they later experienced deposit outflows to smaller banks offering higher rates and money market funds. Notably, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi reported deposit outflows from their wealth management divisions during the second quarter, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo experiencing 11% drops.
Responding to Competitive Pressure
In mid-August, the four major banks responded by offering new short-term CD “specials” to remain competitive in terms of rates. For instance, JPMorgan Chase offered an annualized yield of up to 5% for a 6-month CD. This competitive pressure may further squeeze smaller banks that may struggle to match these rates.
In conclusion, the popularity of money market funds among investors is challenging banks, particularly concerning the retention of wealthy clients. Banks are facing numerous challenges, including high interest rates, increased funding costs, and declining profitability. These challenges are also impacting the overall performance of US bank stocks.